In light of a looming energy crisis in Europe, the challenge of maintaining Ireland’s energy security is receiving more attention now than any time in recent decades. Our electricity grid has recently seen a number of “system alerts”, previously known as “amber alerts”, indicating that the margins between electricity supply and demand are becoming tighter.
The backdrop to this is skyrocketing energy prices, unprecedented levels of energy poverty and the threat of further disruption to European gas supply lines this winter emerging from the terrible events in Ukraine. This has led many to speculate that we are facing an energy crisis not seen since the 1970s, and a resulting deep economic recession.
But how have we arrived at this situation, and how worried should we be about the prospect of the lights going out this winter? What will happen in Ireland if the worst fears are realised and we run out of electricity? And finally, what can we do, in the short term and long term, to manage our way out of an energy crisis?
In light of a looming energy crisis in Europe, the challenge of maintaining Ireland’s energy security is receiving more attention now than any time in recent decades. Our electricity grid has recently seen a number of “system alerts”, previously known as “amber alerts”, indicating that the margins between electricity supply and demand are becoming tighter.
The backdrop to this is skyrocketing energy prices, unprecedented levels of energy poverty and the threat of further disruption to European gas supply lines this winter emerging from the terrible events in Ukraine. This has led many to speculate that we are facing an energy crisis not seen since the 1970s, and a resulting deep economic recession.
But how have we arrived at this situation, and how worried should we be about the prospect of the lights going out this winter? What will happen in Ireland if the worst fears are realised and we run out of electricity? And finally, what can we do, in the short term and long term, to manage our way out of an energy crisis?
Recent developments show that the risk of major outages is steadily increasing. System alerts issued by Eirgrid indicate that the margins between generation and demand are tightening. However, these system alerts are a cause for concern, rather than a cause for panic.
In order for a large-scale grid outage or blackout to occur, a number of bad things need to happen at once. We could envisage a scenario this winter, where we have a “perfect storm”, with a spell of extremely cold weather driving up electricity demand, combined with low wind speeds reducing the capability of our wind generation fleet. If this coincides with technical failures on some of our larger power generation or transmission assets, it could stretch the grid beyond its current capabilities, leading to major supply disruptions.
How likely is this to happen? The truth is that it is impossible to say, since the above scenario depends on several factors that are inherently unpredictable. We may be lucky in that we avoid any major technical faults during peak periods when supply-demand is tightest. The weather may be kind, with good winds and a relatively mild winter without extreme cold weather events. Another major uncertainty is potential Russian disruption to European gas supplies, and what the knock-on effects of continental gas shortages might mean for Ireland.
It is also relevant to note that Ireland is far from alone in experiencing major energy security concerns going into this winter. Germany recently introduced a range of new demand reduction measures, and is re-commissioning old coal and oil generating plants in response to the Russian gas supply threat. France, a country that relies heavily on electricity for domestic heating, is facing a serious risk of blackouts due to technical problems in its aging fleet of nuclear generators. The UK’s energy security challenges are broadly similar to our own.
In the event that our worst energy security fears are realised, detailed plans are in place to ration electricity, sharing the burden of electricity outages as fairly as possible among customers. Large industrial users are first asked to reduce their electricity demand, and if this does not relieve grid problems, customers are disconnected on a rota basis, with a minimum 12 hours’ notice given in advance of disconnection.
What is clear is that our electricity grid is now in a precarious situation. Short-term measures, such as higher tariffs on electricity users during peak evening times, and importing emergency generators may see us through the next few winters. A major casualty of this crisis will be our emissions targets, as we run older and more carbon-intensive generators, such as the Moneypoint coal station, for much longer than intended to help ensure security of supply.
What is also very clear is that we now need to deliver on our major energy infrastructure projects in this decade, including offshore renewables, PV solar projects, grid interconnectors, network upgrades, and grid-scale energy storage. We simply cannot afford the delays due to planning issues, NIMBYism, and political infighting that have plagued so many major infrastructure projects in this country.
Source: rte.ie